Assessing the long-term effects of climate change on offshore wind operations in the UK

The expansion of offshore wind farms (OWFs) in the UK has been largely driven by high wind potential and the availability of suitable sites, enabling the deployment of larger, higher-capacity OWFs. This study evaluates projected trends in wind energy production to identify the optimal exclusive economic zone (EEZ) regions for future OWF installations, aiming to mitigate potential declines in energy yield and ensure power stability at selected sites. Using data from UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), this analysis compares wind conditions across a baseline period (1981–2000) and two future periods (2021–2040 and 2061–2080). The study examines five key factors—wind power density (WPD), capacity factor (CF), monthly variation (MV), seasonal variation (SV), and coefficient of variation (COV)—through relative change (RC) and minimum acceptable threshold (MAT) assessments. Our spatiotemporal analysis, focused on four main offshore UK EEZ regions (North, West, South, and East), suggests prioritizing OWF development in the North and West, and selectively in the South, based on favourable MAT outcomes, while identifying the East as less suitable for future installations. These insights underscore the importance of strategic adaptation in OWF planning, particularly as approximately 61 % of current installations are concentrated in the East region.