The impact of climate change on a large industrial winter road operation in Northern Canada

Winter roads are essential seasonal transportation routes for communities and industries in sub-arctic regions; however, their operational viability is threatened by climate change. Canada has the longest winter road in the world, the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR). This paper uses Freezing Degree Days (FDD) as a key indicator for the opening dates and the cumulative downward surface thermal radiation for the closing dates of the TCWR. By analysing changes in temperature and cumulative downward surface thermal radiation, we observe alterations in the opening and closing dates, ultimately shortening the operational period of the TCWR. A shortened operational period will lead to no viable operations by 2080 and the disappearance of the TCWR before the end of the 21st century. With the TCWR gone, there will be a significant social and economic impact on the region, resulting in job losses and a contraction in GDP in Canada’s Northwest Territories.